Monetary Shocks as Legal Risk: Exchange Rate Depreciation, Stock Market Decline, and Bank Credit Quality in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.68211/nomosethica.v1i2.31Keywords:
Monetary, Stock Price Index, Bank Credit Quality, Financial System StabilityAbstract
This article aims to examine the legal implications of rupiah depreciation and declines in the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI/IHSG) for bank credit quality within the framework of Indonesian banking and monetary law. Using normative legal research with statutory, conceptual, and law-and-economics approaches, the study analyses the Banking Act, the Bank Indonesia Act, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) Act, the Financial System Crisis Prevention and Resolution Act (PPKSK), and the Financial Sector Development and Strengthening Act (P2SK), complemented by scholarly literature on monetary instability, credit risk, and financial-system stability. The analysis demonstrates that exchange-rate depreciation and equity-market decline affect bank credit quality through multiple transmission channels, including rising financing costs, deteriorating debtor solvency, collateral devaluation, heightened non-performing loan (NPL) risk, and pressure on bank liquidity and capital adequacy. These consequences operate on two interconnected legal dimensions. At the private-law level, banks are required to strengthen prudential standards, enhance risk-management practices, and implement credit-restructuring measures to preserve portfolio quality. At the public-law level, Bank Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority (OJK), the Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK), and the Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) bear coordinated responsibilities for preventing the transmission of monetary shocks into systemic financial crises. The article argues that exchange-rate depreciation and stock-market decline should be understood not merely as sources of economic risk but as forms of legal risk capable of transforming banking obligations and activating regulatory responsibilities. It further proposes four regulatory reforms: the integration of mandatory foreign-exchange stress testing into supervisory review mechanisms, enhanced disclosure of debtor foreign-currency exposure, risk-sensitive supervisory frameworks calibrated to external shocks, and real-time crisis-monitoring infrastructure within the KSSK framework.
References
[1] Addury MM, Ramadhani AKP. The influence of financing model and credit risk on financial stability (Study of Islamic rural banks in Java Island). J. Islam. Monet. Econ. Financ. 2024, 10(3):427-444.
[2] Adrian T, Shin HS. Liquidity and Financial Cycles. Bank for International Settlements Working Papers No. 256. Basel: Bank for International Settlements, 2008.
[3] Aikman D, Haldane A, Nelson B. Curbing the Credit Cycle. Econ. J. 2015, 125(585):1072-1109.
[4] Alexander K, Dhumale R, Eatwell J. Global Governance of Financial Systems: The International Regulation of Systemic Risk. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.
[5] Arner DW. Financial Stability, Economic Growth and the Role of Law. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[6] Armour J, Awrey D, Davies P, Enriques L, Gordon JN, et al. Principles of Financial Regulation. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016.
[7] Anggitawati D, Ekaputra IA. Foreign portfolio investment flows and exchange rate: Evidence in Indonesia. Emerg. Mark. Financ. Trade. 2020, 56(2):260-274.
[8] Anggunsuri U, Zahara. Independensi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan pasca Undang-Undang Nomor 4 Tahun 2023 tentang Pengembangan dan Penguatan Sektor Keuangan. J. Huk. Ius Quia Iustum. 2024, 31(3).
[9] Anwar CJ, et al. The impact of monetary policy and credit risk on bank credit behavior: An analysis of banks listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Cogent Econ. Financ. 2023, 11(1).
[10] Avgouleas E. The global financial crisis, behavioural finance and financial regulation: In search of a new orthodoxy. J. Corp. Law Stud. 2009, 9(1):23-59.
[11] Borio C. The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt? J. Bank. Financ. 2014, 45:182-198.
[12] Brunnermeier MK, Sannikov Y. A macroeconomic model with a financial sector. Am. Econ. Rev. 2014, 104(2):379-421.
[13] Claessens S, Kose MA. Financial Crises: Explanations, Types, and Implications. IMF Working Paper No. 13/28. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, 2013.
[14] Coffee JC Jr. Gatekeepers: The Professions and Corporate Governance. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.
[15] Cranston R, Avgouleas E, van Zwieten K, Hare C, Kanda H. Principles of Banking Law, 4th ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2023.
[16] Easterbrook FH, Fischel DR. The Economic Structure of Corporate Law. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991.
[17] Hudaya A, Firmansyah F. Financial stability in the Indonesian monetary policy analysis. Cogent Econ. Financ. 2023, 11(1).
[18] Lastra RM, Wood G. The crisis of 2007-09: Nature, causes and reactions. J. Int. Econ. Law. 2010, 13(3):531-550.
[19] Liang CC, Lin JB, Hsu HC. Reexamining the relationships between stock prices and exchange rates in ASEAN-5 using panel Granger causality approach. Econ. Model. 2013, 32(1):560-563.
[20] Mishkin FS. The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, 13th ed. New York: Pearson, 2022.
[21] Posner RA. Economic Analysis of Law, 10th ed. New York: Wolters Kluwer, 2024.
[22] Prabheesh KP, Anglingkusumo R, Juhro SM. The dynamics of global financial cycle and domestic economic cycles: Evidence from India and Indonesia. Econ. Model. 2021, 94:831-842.
[23] Rahadiyan I. Urgensi pengaturan prinsip keterbukaan dalam equity crowdfunding di Indonesia. J. Huk. Ius Quia Iustum. 2022, 29(1).
[24] Rey H. Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence. NBER Working Paper No. 21162. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015.
[25] Salisu AA, Vo XV. The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments. Int. Rev. Econ. Financ. 2021, 74:138-149.
[26] Stiglitz JE. People, Power, and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent. New York: W.W. Norton, 2019.
[27] Widodo A. The role of integrated Islamic commercial and social finance for curbing credit cycles and achieving macroprudential objective. J. Islam. Monet. Econ. Financ. 2018, 3(2):139-180.
[28] Yusuf C. Pengawasan terhadap informasi asimetri dalam laporan keuangan perusahaan. J. Huk. Ius Quia Iustum. 2022, 29(2).



